AI Hype vs Reality: Finance Job Cuts Exposed

AI is stifling hiring in the banking industry—and it could last for years

Last year, in a letter addressed to shareholders, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon shared a stark reality: artificial intelligence could diminish specific job categories or roles, with workforce impacts comparable to those triggered by transformative inventions like the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, and the internet.

AI emerged as the prime suspect when major institutions such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley announced multiple rounds of layoffs throughout 2025. However, specialists consulted by Fortune assert that the notion of an AI-driven takeover of finance positions is mostly illusionary hype. At least in the short term.

It’s understandable that concerns are mounting as financial institutions reduce their staff numbers while investing billions in AI technologies. Companies have integrated these tools into daily workflows, deploying AI systems nicknamed things like “Socrates,” which can complete hours of entry-level analyst work in mere seconds.

Meanwhile, a Citigroup analysis revealed that 54% of jobs in the financial sector possess a high automation potential—exceeding any other industry. Nevertheless, professionals concur that dismissals directly linked to AI remain minimal to date. The ongoing reductions in banking personnel this year stem primarily from excessive recruitment during the pandemic and lingering economic instability.

“If a major corporation announces, ‘We’re scaling back hiring due to AI,’ or even ‘We’re conducting layoffs because of AI,’ there’s often some element of deception involved,” explains Robert Seamans, director of New York University Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, in an interview with Fortune.

“AI frequently serves as a convenient scapegoat. It’s simpler to point fingers at AI than to acknowledge weakening consumer spending, tariff-related uncertainties, or flawed human resources decisions like overstaffing post-COVID,” he elaborates. “Blaming AI carries far less political backlash than criticizing presidential tariff policies.”

Although AI cannot yet fully supplant bankers or consultants, potential challenges loom for roles in marketing and accounting, according to experts speaking to Fortune. Prestigious business degrees retain their value; most top-tier MBA graduates continue to secure employment offers shortly after completing their studies. That said, opportunities are gradually shrinking, and banking workforce sizes might plateau for an extended period amid AI-fueled productivity surges.

Despite Wall Street making headlines for its relentless string of layoffs this year, headcounts across banking and finance have actually been relatively steady.

“Over the past decade, the overall employee count trend in banking has remained stable or shown a slight decline. I don’t anticipate any dramatic shifts in the near future,” states Pim Hilbers, managing director focused on banking and talent at BCG, in a discussion with Fortune. “This doesn’t imply lifelong job security for everyone. We’re observing greater employee mobility compared to previous years.”

To date, the country’s biggest banks have avoided substantial staff reductions. Bank of America had only four fewer employees at the close of the third quarter this year versus 2024. During the same timeframe, JPMorgan expanded its workforce by 2,000 individuals, with over a third assigned to corporate operations roles. Goldman Sachs, despite several layoff initiatives this year, reported 48,300 employees in September—approximately 1,800 more than the previous year.

Financial firms are reluctant to drastically cut staff at present; consultants inform Fortune that banks are curbing expansion in personnel as much as feasible, capitalizing on AI-driven efficiencies until compelled to onboard additional workers. Analysts foresee this phase of restrained recruitment persisting for several years.

“Numerous banks I’ve spoken with express a desire to boost productivity sufficiently to avoid hiring the next 100 people needed to manage an extra billion dollars in loans,” shares Mike Abbott, industry group lead for Accenture’s banking and capital markets division, with Fortune. “The prevailing mindset is likely: I can sustain productivity gains and skip hiring for the next 24 months.”

“As natural attrition occurs, replacement hiring decreases, but eventually, growth demands will necessitate new recruits once more.”

Top MBA students are still succeeding—but job offers are declining

MBA graduates are beginning to experience the ripples of a tightening job market, even as employment rates hold firm. For instance, about 92% of Columbia Business School’s class of 2025 secured job offers, while 86% of NYU Stern’s current MBA cohort did the same. In the prior year, 93% of Wharton students obtained work opportunities, and 85% at Duke locked in offers.

Nevertheless, faculty from these premier institutions warn that such figures do not represent the broader landscape of MBA education. Schools like Columbia and NYU Stern benefit from their location in New York City, the heart of American finance. Moreover, these top programs offer superior resources for equipping students with in-demand skills to enhance their employability. Daniel Keum, associate professor of business at Columbia Business School, notes to Fortune that Python programming is virtually mandatory for all MBA candidates there.

Even with robust job offer percentages, a closer examination reveals thinner opportunities. According to a Bloomberg review, employment outcomes at all of the United States’ leading seven elite MBA programs—encompassing Northwestern, MIT, Stanford, Harvard, and others—have worsened since 2021. At Harvard, the portion of MBA graduates without a job offer three months post-graduation rose from 4% in 2021 to 15% in 2024. MIT experienced a parallel trend, with jobless graduates increasing from 4.1% to 14.9% over three years.

The finance roles that are still safe—and the ones most at risk

As artificial intelligence advances in handling routine tasks—such as assembling slide decks, consolidating client information, and reconciling accounts—fears have grown that entry-level analysts will be obsolete. Yet, not every position in finance depends on identical competencies, and specialists indicate certain roles face greater peril amid AI’s rise.

Interestingly, novice financial professionals grinding through custom PowerPoint creation are not the initial casualties. Daniel Keum explains to Fortune that positions in consulting and banking demonstrate strong resistance to automation. These roles demand precision with zero tolerance for errors, as clients reject even minor inaccuracies. Furthermore, each transaction is unique; no two mergers mirror each other precisely, complicating efforts to automate the nuanced human judgment required.

“Banking and consulting are holding up reasonably well. Consider compliance functions where a 1% error rate is unacceptable,” Keum states. “That explains why many analyst tasks at firms like McKinsey and Bain have been automated, yet these areas remain heavily reliant on human expertise.”

At the same time, Abbott anticipates a broad uptick in technology recruitment across the sector. Accenture data indicates that 76% of banks plan to grow their tech teams due to agentic AI developments. However, employees in select susceptible positions may suffer from AI’s productivity enhancements. A 2024 Accenture study estimates that 73% of U.S. bankers’ working hours carry significant generative AI disruption potential, potentially lifting productivity for early adopters by 22% to 30% within the coming three years.

Keum identifies accounting and marketing functions as particularly vulnerable. “Accountants are struggling,” he informs Fortune. “Traditionally, their role involved verifying figures against physical receipts. AI excels at this now… Consequently, hiring has dropped sharply, leaving only the most senior professionals secure.”